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The Delphi Technique

March 18, 2016 | Author: | Posted in linguistics, literature and language

The Delphi Technique

2006

The Delphi Method was developed at the RAND corporation in the early 1950s as a spin-off of an Air Force-sponsored research project “Project Delphi ” Since that time it has been refined further and applied to gain information in a wide range of fields . These fields are as diverse as regional economic development , health care policy , sociology environmental risks , prediction of fruit prices , tourism and recreation forestry and advanced manufacturing techniques . The Delphi technique may be particularly useful in situations where strictly objective data are scarce . The [banner_entry_middle]

original project , however , was designed to anticipate an optimal targeting of U .S . industries by a hypothetical Soviet strategic planner . Delphi was first brought before a wider audience in a 1963 RAND study “Report on a Long-Range Forecasting Study ” by Olaf Helmer and T J . Gordon (Linstone and Turoff , 2002 . It is undoubtedly the best-known method of eliciting and synthesizing expert opinion

In the middle 1960s and early 1970s the Delphi method found a wide variety of applications , and by 1974 the number of Delphi studies had exceeded 10 ,000 (Arkansas Administrative Office of the Courts , 2002 Although most applications are concerned with technology forecasting the method has also been applied to many types of policy analysis

Policy Delphi ‘s differ from technology forecasting Delphi ‘s with respect to both purpose and method . In technology forecasting , the team conducting the Delphi study seeks experts who are most knowledgable on the issues in question , and seeks to achieve a high degree of consensus regarding predicted developments . Policy Delphi ‘s on the other hand seek to incorporate the views of the entire spectrum of “stakeholders ” and seek to communicate the spread of their opinions to the decision maker We shall be chiefly concerned with the forecasting type of Delphi ‘s in this brief discussion

The Delphi method has undergone substantial evolution and diversification , but the basic approach may be described as follows . A monitoring team defines a set of issues and selects a set of respondents who are experts on the issues in question . A respondent generally does not know who the other respondents are , and the responses are anonymous A preliminary questionnaire is sent to the respondents for comments which are then used to establish a definitive questionnaire (Sharp 2006 . Typical questions take the form “In what year will suchand-such take place

This questionnaire is then sent to the respondents and their answers are analyzed by the monitoring team . The set of responses is then sent back to the respondents , together with the median answer and the interquartile range , the range containing all but the lower 25 and the upper 25 of the responses . The respondents are asked if they wish to revise the initial predictions . Those whose answers remain outside the interquartile range for a given item are asked to give arguments for their prediction on this item (Winston , 1999

The revised predictions are then processed in the same way as the first responses , and arguments for outliers are summarized… [banner_entry_footer]

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